Why I think this is election result is worse for Harper than expected, not better #elxn41
May 2 2011, 9:34 PM
It's been an astounding election in Canada tonight, with Stephen Harper and
the Canadian conservatives winning a majority of seats in the House of
Parliament. This should be a great triumph for him, and it is. So how could
it possible be worse for him? I would argue that Harper has maintained an exceptional discipline over his
right wing party since he became leader. Anyone familiar with Canadian
politics knows the Tories were known for their in fighting that frequently
made them their own worse enemy (e.g. Stanfield-Diefenbaker,
Clark-Mulroney). Harper reined all that in. Any scent of corruption and you
were gone. Any move away from the center right was put to bed. The message
has been consistent throughout. Dissent was squashed. And so, give him his due, he won his majority. Now he has a number of
problems. First, the not so center right of his party is going to want to
move the party away from the center, or at least what the center currently
is. All those old Reform/Harris Tories are going to force Harper to chose
between them or the center as it stands. When he was a minority leader, he
could depress that desire to move right. It will be hard to stop that now. The other problem is that Layton and the NDP are going to redefine the
center. Unlike Harper, Layton is a likelable guy for most Canadians. He is
going to move the center to the left, much more than Ignatieff and the
Liberals ever would if they were in his Jack's position. Combined, this is going to make the Conservatives seem very right of centre
in the next few years. And that will create openings for the NDP to claim
the center. And claim it they will, for the Greens may also help push the
NDP that way as well. If the Tories seem too far right, they will suffer. Either a minority government or a majority government with Liberals as the
opposition would have been better for Harper. Anyway, thanks for reading my late night political thoughts. We live
interesting times.
-----------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Handheld.
the Canadian conservatives winning a majority of seats in the House of
Parliament. This should be a great triumph for him, and it is. So how could
it possible be worse for him? I would argue that Harper has maintained an exceptional discipline over his
right wing party since he became leader. Anyone familiar with Canadian
politics knows the Tories were known for their in fighting that frequently
made them their own worse enemy (e.g. Stanfield-Diefenbaker,
Clark-Mulroney). Harper reined all that in. Any scent of corruption and you
were gone. Any move away from the center right was put to bed. The message
has been consistent throughout. Dissent was squashed. And so, give him his due, he won his majority. Now he has a number of
problems. First, the not so center right of his party is going to want to
move the party away from the center, or at least what the center currently
is. All those old Reform/Harris Tories are going to force Harper to chose
between them or the center as it stands. When he was a minority leader, he
could depress that desire to move right. It will be hard to stop that now. The other problem is that Layton and the NDP are going to redefine the
center. Unlike Harper, Layton is a likelable guy for most Canadians. He is
going to move the center to the left, much more than Ignatieff and the
Liberals ever would if they were in his Jack's position. Combined, this is going to make the Conservatives seem very right of centre
in the next few years. And that will create openings for the NDP to claim
the center. And claim it they will, for the Greens may also help push the
NDP that way as well. If the Tories seem too far right, they will suffer. Either a minority government or a majority government with Liberals as the
opposition would have been better for Harper. Anyway, thanks for reading my late night political thoughts. We live
interesting times.
-----------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Handheld.