Some thoughts on the upcoming demise of the iPhone and Social Media
July 28 2012, 7:04 AM
It might seem odd to talk about the upcoming demise of these two: the
iPhone is extremely popular and twitter is being featured in the 2012
Olympics. Yet i think this will happen. Here's why. * Social Media has peaked: the big Social Media companies have become well
established now. While some new ones have come along (eg Instagram), any
that do come along will either be coopted or gobbled up by the big players
(eg Instagram). There is still room for growth within organizations for
Social Media growth, but external of them, it has peaked. * Mobile is where innovation is headed: a few years ago innovation and
investment and interest was in social media. I believe now the majority of
interest that technical innovators now have or will have is in the mobile
space. That's where the new products and services will go. Social Media
will become incremental rather than revolutionary. * More and more phones will become Android phones. The functionality is
increasing on Android all the time, and the cost of those phones will drop
more and more. * the iPhone form factor will become obsolete. Either all phones get bigger
or they will get to be much much smaller (think of the iPhone becoming a
clip). * The phone is less and less important. The point of mobile computing
devices is more and more about mobile computing and less and less about the
phone. * mobile devices will offer more capabilities. As the screen quality peaks,
mobile device makers will offer more sensors and other capabilities to sell
more devices. Apple will likely make theirs state of the art in terms of
design while others add more and more sensors and ports that are less
attractive visually but more functional. * mobile devices need to get bigger to allow sites to sell ads: bigger
mobile devices allow more space for ads in a way iPhones do not. Eventually
big sites like Facebook will optimize for bigger mobile devices. This will
put pressure on hardware manufacturers to give up that form factor. People
will go with the bigger form factor to get the better experience. In short, the iPhone will be replaced by something bigger that may only
have a phone as an afterthought. Social media will become more and more
about the current big players, with smaller players being wither niche or
getting gobbled up. And most of what IT people will get excited about next
will be mobile devices. And after that? Sensors. Finally, these are my opinions and beliefs and do not reflect those of my
employer. (See this blog's description)
-----------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Handheld.
iPhone is extremely popular and twitter is being featured in the 2012
Olympics. Yet i think this will happen. Here's why. * Social Media has peaked: the big Social Media companies have become well
established now. While some new ones have come along (eg Instagram), any
that do come along will either be coopted or gobbled up by the big players
(eg Instagram). There is still room for growth within organizations for
Social Media growth, but external of them, it has peaked. * Mobile is where innovation is headed: a few years ago innovation and
investment and interest was in social media. I believe now the majority of
interest that technical innovators now have or will have is in the mobile
space. That's where the new products and services will go. Social Media
will become incremental rather than revolutionary. * More and more phones will become Android phones. The functionality is
increasing on Android all the time, and the cost of those phones will drop
more and more. * the iPhone form factor will become obsolete. Either all phones get bigger
or they will get to be much much smaller (think of the iPhone becoming a
clip). * The phone is less and less important. The point of mobile computing
devices is more and more about mobile computing and less and less about the
phone. * mobile devices will offer more capabilities. As the screen quality peaks,
mobile device makers will offer more sensors and other capabilities to sell
more devices. Apple will likely make theirs state of the art in terms of
design while others add more and more sensors and ports that are less
attractive visually but more functional. * mobile devices need to get bigger to allow sites to sell ads: bigger
mobile devices allow more space for ads in a way iPhones do not. Eventually
big sites like Facebook will optimize for bigger mobile devices. This will
put pressure on hardware manufacturers to give up that form factor. People
will go with the bigger form factor to get the better experience. In short, the iPhone will be replaced by something bigger that may only
have a phone as an afterthought. Social media will become more and more
about the current big players, with smaller players being wither niche or
getting gobbled up. And most of what IT people will get excited about next
will be mobile devices. And after that? Sensors. Finally, these are my opinions and beliefs and do not reflect those of my
employer. (See this blog's description)
-----------------
Sent from my BlackBerry Handheld.